Is Bush's foreign policy schizophrenic? No. If it were, that would suggest moderates had real influence. Posted by Suzanne Nossel

There’s an interesting debate under way over at Opinio Juris (a terrific blog on international law, in case you don't know it) about whether the internal conflicts in the Bush Administration’s foreign policy represent a kind of schizophrenia or instead a coherent, carefully tailored response to a diverse array of issues. The argument dovetails with some discussion here about the contrast between what Derek maintains is a skilled and moderate set of second-term appointees, and the choice of extremist John Bolton as UN representative.

While Chris Borgen (full disclosure: a friend for 15 years) maintains that Bush’s willy-nilly swerving is the product of a split within Bush’s inner circle over the right means for executing foreign policy, Julian Ku counters that Bush is doing a slalom so methodical and sophisticated that its pattern is invisible to the naked-eye (Julian is too nuanced to use the word nuanced, but that’s what he means).

My view is that when the Administration feels that it can toss a cost-free bone to moderates, it does so. Thus the appointment of Colin Powell and the continuing support for Kofi Annan (which, as discussed here, may look magnanimous but is also a matter of self-interest). But the minute there is a cost – i.e. Powell beginning to question Iraq policy – the right-wing flank shuts it down.

During Bush’s first-term the appointment of Richard Haass to head the State Department’s Office of Policy Planning was widely touted as a sign of moderation and level-headedness within the ranks. Except that Haass had limited influence and his staff was, according to a friend of mine who was on it, left writing thoughtful memos that they knew would never be acted on. Will Bob Zoellick and Nick Burns meet the same fate? If they cross swords with the likes of Cheney and Rumsfeld, my guess is yes.

Does this mean that, apart from what have turned out to be pretty empty gestures, the Administration has a coherent foreign policy approach? Bush tries hard to come across as unswerving in his views and policies, but I don’t buy it. After all, his closest advisor, Condi Rice, foreswore nation-building right before Bush took office, and now styles herself as the champion of “staying the course” in Iraq and promoting freedom and democracy elsewhere.   WMD was the reason for invading Iraq, until that wore thin and the Administration seized on the idea of promoting democracy (something Wolfowitz had long talked about, but mostly to himself). 

It's impossible to imagine Cheney or Rumsfeld, the other key architects of the Bush foreign policy, making remarks anything like Rice's when she introduced Ruth Ginsberg at a recent American Society of International Law Conference.

My sense is that it works something like this: While there are some ideologues in the Bush Administration, their views are so unyielding that Bush and Rice don’t necessarily subscribe to their overarching ideology.

But at key moments where the President has needed to appear firm and decisive, the neo-con ideologues have proven very useful in proffering up concrete proposals and rationales (however trumped up) to back them up. Fearful of repeating his father’s mistakes by appearing weak or directionless, Bush has seized on the neo-con program at key moments including the period after 9/11. The moderates around him like Powell struggled to offer clear or resolute alternatives and, over time, neo-con influence grew.

While there was a major hiccup last year as Iraq sunk into chaos, neo-con credibility in the White House now seems to be back on the upswing. When moderates do fight back successfully, it tends to be on issues that either don’t matter to conservatives or are outside of public view (take the ICJ and Law of the Sea examples brought up at Opinio Juris). The ICC referral for Darfur was a case of the Administration being boxed into a corner by opponents at home and abroad (the same reason they went to the UN the very first time on Iraq in Fall of 2002 – the political heat became too powerful to resist).

So, signs of moderation are something less than schizophrenia.  When push comes to shove, the ideologues win out.  With less at stake for Bush politically in his second term, this may be less often, though I wouldn't count on it.

Upshot:  If confirmed, John Bolton is not going to China (not least because the Chinese wouldn’t have him).

Comments

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